Ukraine recap: Russia’s ‘modern siege tactics’ fail to break the people’s will to resist: First, let’s clear up some unfinished business from last week. We reported here that Russia’s defence minister, Sergei Shoigu, had been talking up the idea that Ukraine was planning to use a “dirty bomb” and specified a couple of facilities which …
Ukraine war: lessons from the Blitz suggest Russia’s targeting of cities could backfire: Russian general Sergey Surovikin has a reputation for ruthlessness. Appointed the Russian military’s overall commander on October 8, the day the strategically vital Kerch Bridge was targeted by an explosion that badly damaged Russia’s main road and rail connection with Crimea, he …
Ukraine war: mobilisation and forced conscription shows the failure of Russia’s inflexible ‘continental’ mindset: Vladimir Putin’s announcement of a partial mobilisation follows Russia’s strategic and operational failures in Ukraine. It also confirms the Kremlin’s inability to think outside the box of its old doctrine. Moscow’s response remains the same as before – to overwhelm the …
Ukraine war: Putin calls up more troops and threatens nuclear option in a speech which ups the ante but shows Russia’s weakness: Declaring a partial mobilisation and threatening the use of “lots of Russian weapons” in response to alleged western nuclear blackmail, Russia’s president Vladimir Putin has upped the ante once more in his war …
Ukraine war: Russia’s problems on the battlefield stem from failures at the top: For authoritarians like the Russian president, Vladimir Putin, the military can serve a number of functions. Not only is it a key aspect of maintaining control and projecting power, but in Putin’s case it has served as a key national resource to …
Ukraine war: reports of mass deportations recall Russia’s dark history of forcible relocations: Russia’s military campaign against Ukraine has been widely condemned as a war of aggression. In Moscow’s narrative, Ukraine has no real or legitimate existence as a separate country – and they portray the military operations as a means to reunify Russia. But …
Ukraine war: how Kyiv’s southern offensive will exploit Russia’s naval vulnerabilities: Ukraine launched its counteroffensive in the Kherson region on August 29, the success of which would have major military, political and symbolic consequences. This move has been made possible by Ukraine’s recent maritime successes that have reduced Russia’s ability to control the southern coast …
Ukraine war: Russia’s invasion is an attempt to rewrite its own history: Youthful patriotism: Russia's sense of its own history remains unclear. REUTERS/Evgenia Novozhenina Vladimir Putin’s justifications for his country’s invasion of Ukraine – that is, legitimate anxiety at the erosion of Russia’s geopolitical security triggered by Nato’s expansion into eastern Europe – are looking …
Ukraine war: hope for the best, prepare for the worst – Europe sweats over the future of Russia’s gas supply: The invasion of Ukraine on February 24 and the nearly five months of war that have followed have reminded many European countries of the stark reality of their energy dependence on Russia. For ten days, …
Russia’s influence in the Balkans is growing just as the region’s fragile peace is threatened: The Serb leader in Bosnia & Herzogovina, Milorad Dodik, has been an outspoken supporter of Russia's president Vladimir Putin. RSplaneta/Shutterstock The EU continues to keep Albania, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Montenegro, Kosovo, North Macedonia and Serbia on the waiting list to …
Russia’s neighbours are looking towards the EU or China for protection: Russian president Vladimir Putin’s increasingly explicit imperial ambitions to reconstitute a Russian empire from the ashes of the Soviet Union has raised considerable fears among former members. The only former USSR state that has fully endorsed and supported the Russian campaign against Ukraine is …
Ukraine conflict: how China could follow Russia’s playbook to increase its own powers: Amid the restructuring of the global order that has been accelerated by Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, the evolving position of China had been lost in the fog of war. The heads of the UK’s security service (MI5) and US Federal Bureau of …
Ukraine war: Russia’s G20 walkout heightens tensions at fractious summit as China’s rise continues: While G20 foreign ministers were meeting in Bali, Indonesia, the Russian president, Vladimir Putin, threatened further escalation in his war against Ukraine, announcing to the world that “by and large, we have not started anything in earnest yet”. What he meant …
Russia’s oil is in long-term decline – and the war has only added to the problem: Immediately after Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, world oil prices jumped above US$ 100 per barrel, hitting US$ 130 for Brent crude on March 8. The prevailing fear was that substantial Russian supplies would be lost to the world market either …
Ukraine war: as the conflict at sea intensifies, Russia’s prospects of victory look further off than ever: The Ukraine war is at a strategic turning point. As the Russian offensive intensifies in the Donbas without resulting in any substantial gains, western leaders warn that the war will be long, and supporting Ukraine must be sustained …
Ukraine war: fears that Belarus might invade on Russia’s side are growing: As the war in Ukraine drags on and Russia’s attempts to gain significant ground in Donbas stall, concerns are being raised once again about the possibility of Belarus opening a second front. This, so the logic goes, would require Ukraine to redeploy forces …
Ukraine war: Russia’s military campaign hindered by the rivers in Donbas: One of the keys to planning a military campaign is to take into account the type of terrain the war will take place on. The frontlines of the Ukraine conflict underline how important this is – they are mainly defined by rivers and other …
Russia’s rouble is now stronger than before the war – western sanctions are partly to blame: In the days after Russia invaded Ukraine in February 2022 and the west imposed sanctions, the rouble collapsed. The number of roubles to one US dollar quickly fell from about 78 to 138 – a huge move in the …